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About me

I am a Ph.D. Candidate in the Economics Department at Princeton University.

 

My research interests include international trade, environmental economics, and macroeconomics.

I am on the 2021-2022 Job Market and will be available for interviews during the ASSA meeting in January 2022. You might download my CV here.

Contact information

Department of Economics

Princeton University

Julis Romo Rabinowitz Building, Princeton, NJ 08544

jlca@princeton.edu

(609) 874-3366

Research

Job Market Paper

Abstract:  Global warming is a phenomenon expected to have heterogeneous effects across geographic locations and economic sectors. To assess its welfare consequences and the reallocation of workers across different markets, I develop a dynamic economic model with the patterns of structural transformation and spatially distinct labor markets facing varying exposure to warming damages on productivity. I incorporate trade of goods and migration across regions and industries, to account for the ability of agents to adapt to this phenomenon, and non-homothetic preferences, to reproduce the reallocation of economic activity when income grows. To measure mobility frictions, I collect data from censuses and population surveys, and employ methodologies from the demographic literature to provide novel estimates of worldwide bilateral migration flows. To identify the non-linear effects of temperature on productivity, I exploit weather fluctuations in a long panel and find that agricultural productivity in the hottest countries declines by 6% when temperature rises 1ºC. The model, quantified for 6 sectors and 287 countries and subnational units, suggests that workers in agriculture face welfare losses three times larger than the average worker and that employment in this sector increases. Although hot regions might reduce the production of agricultural goods and import them from less affected locations, sectoral specialization is mainly driven by the shift in consumption expenditure towards the subsistence goods, as warming reduces global income.

Other Papers

With Esteban Rossi-Hansberg

NBER Working Paper No. 28466

Abstract:  Global warming is a worldwide and protracted phenomenon with heterogeneous local economic effects. In order to evaluate the aggregate and local economic consequences of higher temperatures, we propose a dynamic economic assessment model of the world economy with high spatial resolution. Our model features a number of mechanisms through which individuals can adapt to global warming, including costly trade and migration, and local technological innovations and natality rates. We quantify the model at a 1º x 1º resolution and estimate damage functions that determine the impact of temperature changes on a region's fundamental productivity and amenities depending on local temperatures. Our baseline results show welfare losses from global warming as large as 20% in parts of Africa and Latin America but also high heterogeneity across locations, with northern regions in Siberia, Canada, and Alaska experiencing gains. We find that global warming will increase spatial inequality, since estimated welfare losses across locations are negatively correlated with current real income and welfare. There is large uncertainty about average welfare effects, but much less uncertainty about the spatial distribution of losses. Our quantification points to migration and, to a lesser extent, innovation as important adaptation mechanisms. We use the model to assess the impact of carbon taxes, abatement technologies, and clean energy subsidies. Carbon taxes delay consumption of fossil fuels and help flatten the temperature curve but are much more effective when an abatement technology is forthcoming.

Work in Progress

Optimal Environmental Policy to Mitigate
Global Warming

The Spatial, Industrial and Dynamic Economic Response to Climate Shocks

 

Teaching

Princeton University (Teaching Assistant)

Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México (Lecturer)

 
 

Contact me

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José-Luis Cruz 

Ph.D. Candidate in Economics

Department of Economics

Princeton University

Julis Romo Rabinowitz Building, Princeton, NJ 08544